Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Montana

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Montana in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Montana in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 73.4% for Montana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.746) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.012).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.6625 8.62%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5489 -1.69%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1861 -2.88%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0631 -0.49%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0284 -1.70%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0442 0.36%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0063 -0.15%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.0158 0.14%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0158 -0.21%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.2334 1.17%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0536 -0.63%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4322 -5.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.0789 -0.96%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0252 0.25%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.1293 -1.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0789 1.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0189 -0.27%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.2871 5.64%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.2114 2.67%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0726 -1.32%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0852 2.47%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0063 -0.02%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.2429 -2.29%
Low Income 0.0081 0.9621 0.78%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0536 -0.29%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0000 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0662 -1.22%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6940 13.11%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0095 0.01%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.3186 -0.47%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0095 0.13%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.6814 4.23%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0032 0.15%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.8675 -4.29%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0126 -0.03%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.1262 0.55%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.9968 2.20%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 306.0000 -5.60%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0272 5.78%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0676 5.82%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0446 0.85%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0136 -7.27%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0474 -23.05%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.0923 34.68%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2415 19.89%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1445 -12.90%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0395 17.88%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0792 17.54%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0362 2.47%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,159 for Montana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40362) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34203).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.7042 -$2,001
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5587 -$482
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1831 -$576
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0610 -$323
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0282 -$171
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0423 $10
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0000 $0
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.0235 -$55
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0141 -$89
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.1972 -$531
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0376 $262
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.3944 $143
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.0798 $66
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0235 -$31
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.1502 $848
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0892 $361
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0282 $241
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3052 $295
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.2113 $765
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0469 -$46
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0845 -$114
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0047 -$21
Single Parent 145.7630 0.2629 $38
Low Income -332.4067 0.9624 -$320
Homeless -446.4262 0.0469 -$21
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0657 -$128
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7465 $603
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4206.9300 $1,537
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0141 $28
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.3615 $248
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0094 -$24
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.6995 $639
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.8732 $94
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0047 -$28
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.1127 $95
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.9953 -$205
Median Days in Program 3.2489 294.0000 $955
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0272 $654
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0676 $2,185
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0446 $1,750
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0136 -$657
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0474 $193
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.0923 $8,930
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2415 $13,563
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1445 $8,335
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0395 $425
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0792 $3,140
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0362 -$221

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 52.5% for Montana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.775) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.251).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.6950 -25.12%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6472 33.77%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1247 -0.88%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0371 -3.70%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0212 6.20%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0398 -5.75%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0106 2.26%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.0371 -2.11%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.1724 14.69%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0345 6.81%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.4032 -4.91%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.0955 -1.76%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0106 0.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.1379 -11.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0716 -1.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0106 1.95%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.3528 12.87%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.3050 -9.29%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0663 -1.73%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0504 1.26%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0212 1.87%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.2228 4.76%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0080 0.62%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.7003 -0.09%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0080 0.05%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0027 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.7268 -9.42%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0053 0.26%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0743 -2.12%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 1.0000 7.32%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 257.0000 9.11%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 208.0000 -5.07%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0690 -0.06%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0272 27.23%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0676 60.34%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0446 54.08%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0136 -59.75%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0474 150.28%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.0923 69.92%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2415 239.77%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1445 37.31%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0395 129.81%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0792 -1.13%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0362 -49.01%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 73.4% for Montana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.605) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.339).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4532 2.70%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4384 0.83%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2906 -0.49%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1182 1.25%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0985 -1.88%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0345 0.41%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0049 -0.14%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0148 -0.05%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0887 -0.87%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0148 -0.29%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.3744 -0.97%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.0887 -1.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0394 -0.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0837 -0.76%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1478 -2.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0542 -0.66%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.2562 2.72%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.1478 -0.38%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0296 -0.16%
Veteran 0.0056 0.1379 0.08%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0049 -0.12%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.1133 0.51%
Low Income -0.0518 0.4975 -2.58%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0049 0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0000 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0246 -0.56%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8621 9.75%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0197 0.11%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7488 1.56%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0148 0.11%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.5764 2.86%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.3399 -4.28%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0049 0.40%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0246 -1.31%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 1.0000 -5.12%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 341.0000 0.27%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0272 -5.50%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0676 -3.16%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0446 -7.61%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0136 -13.50%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0474 -29.72%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.0923 -33.25%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2415 -48.17%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1445 -41.22%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0395 12.02%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0792 9.74%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0362 1.49%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,474 for Montana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 33807) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-25333).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5034 -$957
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4414 $492
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3103 -$39
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1172 -$249
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0828 -$206
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0276 -$24
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0000 $0
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0138 -$21
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0621 -$219
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0138 -$51
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.3517 -$492
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.0828 -$157
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0276 $2
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0966 $147
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1448 $169
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0690 $149
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.2552 $434
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.1379 $522
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0276 $8
Veteran 1445.8344 0.1379 $199
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0000 $0
Single Parent -784.4348 0.1241 -$97
Low Income -538.7097 0.4966 -$267
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0069 $54
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0069 $1
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8759 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 7316.4600 $671
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0207 $28
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.7655 $53
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0207 -$52
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.5793 $102
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.3517 $165
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0069 -$15
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0207 -$87
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 1.0000 -$403
Median Days in Program 2.2222 318.5000 $708
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0272 -$741
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0676 $2,477
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0446 $2,105
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0136 -$3,548
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0474 $4,069
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.0923 $8,770
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2415 $12,358
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1445 $6,357
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0395 -$180
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0792 $1,763
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0362 -$210

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 64.3% for Montana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.489) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.845).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5449 -8.22%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5321 -3.48%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2308 5.57%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0962 4.40%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0705 6.44%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0513 -3.41%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0064 -0.34%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0064 -0.21%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.1346 35.63%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0192 0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.3654 -7.02%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1154 -2.75%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0192 -0.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1346 3.53%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1090 -1.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0256 -1.10%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.2564 -0.55%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.1987 -5.25%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0321 -4.64%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0833 -7.70%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.1154 4.26%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.9231 2.65%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0064 0.25%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0128 0.46%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.6538 -4.02%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0064 -2.48%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 1.0000 -9.63%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 313.0000 -10.06%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 423.5000 -11.58%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0385 0.62%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0272 -21.97%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0676 30.07%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0446 43.96%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0136 -80.03%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0474 57.78%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.0923 148.19%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2415 173.00%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1445 21.86%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0395 257.96%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0792 -22.55%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0362 -39.14%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 63.0% for Montana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.172) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.803).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.6522 3.88%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0435 0.53%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2696 -3.87%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3478 -7.14%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1652 0.17%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0870 -0.55%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.0348 -0.14%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0174 -0.93%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.2000 -6.68%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0261 0.39%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.2783 1.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0087 -0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0174 1.99%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0087 0.43%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1565 4.30%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2087 0.74%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.2087 -0.98%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0000 0.00%
Low Income 0.0375 0.5304 1.99%
Homeless -0.2008 0.1217 -2.44%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0957 0.61%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0261 -0.03%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1217 -0.87%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.0087 0.03%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0696 -0.30%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.5826 2.57%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.3391 -5.12%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0261 0.19%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0435 -0.15%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0087 0.03%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.1304 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.9739 1.45%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 285.0000 -1.14%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0272 -18.45%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0676 -12.71%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0446 -6.07%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0136 -9.95%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0474 -10.12%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.0923 -23.59%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2415 0.60%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1445 -5.70%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0395 -42.63%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0792 26.12%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0362 -5.38%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $2,842 for Montana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14623) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11781).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.6849 -$1,285.96
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0548 -$5.06
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2329 -$304.85
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3562 -$379.84
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1644 $106.77
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.1233 $235.91
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0000 $0.00
Race: Black -886.3703 0.0411 -$36.43
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0137 -$46.42
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.1781 -$32.85
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0411 $38.35
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.3151 $436.04
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0000 $0.00
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.2055 $126.12
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2329 $127.20
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1918 -$94.97
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0000 $0.00
Low Income -305.7985 0.4658 -$142.43
Homeless 983.9044 0.1781 $175.22
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0822 -$105.59
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0274 $27.67
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.1370 $117.06
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.0137 -$3.88
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0000 $0.00
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0822 -$38.02
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.5890 $94.94
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.3288 -$60.52
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0137 -$22.72
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0548 -$29.57
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0137 $1.43
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.1233 -$0.53
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.9726 -$27.11
Median Days in Program 0.5942 293.0000 $174.10
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0272 -$86.24
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0676 $743.00
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0446 $961.63
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0136 -$756.13
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0474 $2,122.51
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.0923 $1,312.37
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2415 $4,919.84
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1445 $1,024.52
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0395 $2,252.25
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0792 $3,450.27
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0362 -$364.83

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 29.6% for Montana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.02) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.724).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5068 -13.98%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0616 -5.00%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.4315 -38.94%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2877 -20.13%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1301 -21.35%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0685 -0.12%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0137 0.01%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.3288 -5.19%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0137 2.70%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.1233 -3.32%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0000 0.00%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.3219 0.71%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0205 0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.5753 -4.10%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.2260 6.20%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0137 0.76%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0342 -3.04%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.9658 -4.86%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 179.0000 -5.84%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0548 -1.89%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0272 20.74%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0676 64.70%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0446 26.01%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0136 -58.37%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0474 -67.47%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.0923 133.62%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2415 170.58%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1445 91.05%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0395 200.79%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0792 -58.13%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0362 -4.22%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 66.8% for Montana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.308) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.64).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4448 3.56%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4254 4.62%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1982 -1.71%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1117 -0.08%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1187 -0.75%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0369 0.86%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0080 -0.19%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0141 -0.23%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0079 0.76%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.1724 -5.28%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0261 0.64%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.3368 -0.58%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.0724 0.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0231 -0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0699 2.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0902 -6.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0242 -1.27%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.2478 2.14%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0714 -0.64%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0697 -2.48%
Veteran 0.2170 0.1180 2.56%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0080 -0.01%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0442 0.90%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0210 0.19%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0239 -0.16%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0009 0.02%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0103 -0.24%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.6965 22.11%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0014 -0.02%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.3346 -1.29%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0012 -0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0168 -0.17%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 -0.04%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0171 -0.20%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0101 1.09%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0027 -0.16%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 37.0000 -1.02%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0272 4.58%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0676 10.41%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0446 4.52%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0136 -0.63%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0474 14.05%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.0923 8.70%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2415 30.99%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1445 8.55%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0395 15.41%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0792 13.47%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0362 1.24%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,848 for Montana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 39410) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-33562).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4633 -$1,286
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4377 $668
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2092 $47
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1121 $193
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0949 $379
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0390 $59
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0083 -$11
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0153 -$45
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0067 -$17
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.1430 -$796
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0259 $276
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.3373 -$595
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.0792 -$172
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0251 -$55
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0752 $158
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0998 $7
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0250 -$125
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.2951 $135
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0745 -$86
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0603 -$308
Veteran -913.8967 0.1118 -$102
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0083 $13
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0478 $32
Low Income 634.4633 0.0207 $13
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0217 -$76
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0006 $1
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0105 -$113
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.7886 -$173
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 5883.3250 $1,536
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0013 $1
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.3556 $162
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0013 $0
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0179 -$11
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0173 -$20
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0087 $95
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0026 $4
Median Days in Program 0.8717 36.0000 $31
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0272 $1,008
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0676 $2,890
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0446 $2,128
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0136 $154
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0474 $2,966
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.0923 $6,266
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2415 $12,435
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1445 $6,218
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0395 $1,644
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0792 $4,067
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0362 -$184

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x